(HOST) Commentator Bill Schubart has been listening to all of the political rhetoric and notes a disturbing campaign trend, "Just say it and it is true."
(SCHUBART) "Vermont has the highest marginal tax burden in the country."
"Vermont is not a good place to do business."
"Wealthy people are fleeing Vermont to live in Florida where taxes are lower."
"Our children must leave Vermont because they can’t find jobs here."
Just keep repeating it and it becomes true. Like most broad generalizations, these statements all have a modicum of truth, but their facile political intent doesn’t reflect any significant degree of reality or even accuracy.
Vermont’s tax rate is high and probably always will be on the high side since Vermont has only 305,000 income tax filers, of whom slightly more than half pay anything. Are we the most heavily taxed people in the country? Five studies will get you five different answers depending on the calculus or the ideological intent. But it’s probably fair to say that we’re somewhere in the top ten.
"Vermont has a terrible business climate." My partners and I started and ran a business whose sales peaked at $20M in the ecommerce heydays. Vermont was, and remains, a great place to do business. Ask twenty business leaders and the glass-half-full CEO’s will tell you they wouldn’t relocate for love or money and the glass-half-empty CEOs will tell you anecdotes about how hard it is to do business here. Then ask them if they are ready to invest in a move and replace most of their workforce.
"Wealthy People "are" going to Florida,", but federal data indicates out-migration and in-migration are roughly equal and that those moving in have slightly higher incomes than those moving out.
The politicians forget to mention that. They also forget to mention that Florida has a $3B deficit.
Does that mean we should not do everything in our power to attract and retain wealth, of course not, but let’s at least start with the truth.
It’s also often said that "Our children must leave Vermont because there are no jobs." But Vermont has some of the best employment statistics of any state. According to a study by the Boston Federal Reserve some months back, Vermont is no worse in this measure than most rural states where kids go out and see the world, make their way in the big city and often return home. I did after only two years.
Just say it and it becomes true is one of the sad and dangerous results of a shrinking press corps and a distracted electorate. It is rare now that a bold political statement with a precarious basis in fact is challenged. Single-agenda politicians can now make sweeping statements that suit their purpose with impunity.
During this election, Vermonters are going to hear a lot about lowering taxes, job creation, size of government – all hot buttons designed to keep us from going deeper on the complex underlying issues. Hopefully the press corps and the electorate will not swallow these placebos without reading their ingredients. Problem statements are easy. Solutions are not.
(TAG) You can find more commentaries by Bill Schubart at VPR-dot-net.