(HOST) The Arctic Ice-cap melted by a stunning amount this summer. This has lead to some excited speculation about the opening of the NW passage, or drilling for oil in the arctic, but commentator Alan Betts warns that this news doesn’t bode well for anyone.
(BETTS) The Arctic ice-cap has been shrinking slowly for decades during the summer months, but this summer the melting increased dramatically. Scientists have been predicting that as the climate warms, the northern ice-cap might melt completely in summer, perhaps as early as 2040. But scientists were still astonished, when satellite measurements this September showed that the arctic icecap had shrunk by another 15% – to only 60% of its former size.
The global climate is warming, driven by the increase of carbon dioxide in the air, coming mainly from the burning of fossil fuels. As it warms and the polar ice melts, the warming accelerates because with less ice, less sunlight is reflected. And with more open ocean, more water evaporates. Because water vapor, like carbon dioxide, is a greenhouse gas, the extra water vapor in the arctic air traps more of the earth’s heat radiation, and this too speeds up the warming. It is now clear that the earth is going to lose its northern ice-cap in summer, and it is happening even faster than we predicted.
This is a big change: but does it matter? Well first, the sea-ice is floating, so when it melts, this doesn’t affect sea-level. However, it accelerates the warming of the Arctic, so that the ice on Greenland will also melt faster, and this does matter a lot. The big ice-sheet on Greenland is more than six thousand feet thick, so that if it all melts or slips as icebergs into the ocean, sea level will rise about 20ft, flooding a lot of coastal cities. There is still time to slow this melt, if we move our economy away from fossil fuels quickly, but that will take concerted effort by us, our communities and our leaders. This summer’s icecap melt is a clear warning that our window of opportunity is also shrinking fast!
It’s easy to see why many Vermonters may welcome the warmer fall and winter temperatures that come from the melting of the frozen north. Our gardening season gets steadily longer, and my sweet potato crop is the best ever. But of course the skiing season is also getting shorter, and maple sugaring is moving north to Canada.
And we’re not alone on this planet. Polar bears are pretty smart; a few wise ones are looking for new summer homes. And I think Santa’s toy factory has already been moved to China. But remember that the tropics are also getting hotter; where so many people live in poverty with little water. It is the rich countries that are responsible for the warming climate – even if we have only realized this in recent years – yet it will be the poor nations that suffer the most. From the oceans to the forests to the high mountain meadows, all life on earth will be changed as the earth’s climate warms, and many ecosystems will crumble. It’s not enough just to watch and hope for the best, humbled and helpless. We must change direction, away from a fossil fuel economy, while we still have time.
Alan Betts is the outgoing president of the Vermont Academy of Science and Engineering.