(HOST) The conventional wisdom is that the economy has superseded the Iraq war as the Presidential campaign’s major issue. However, this morning former ABC News diplomatic correspondent and commentator Barrie Dunsmore says that, come November, Iraq will again be dominant.
(DUNSMORE) The American economy is stumbling and may be headed for recession. People vote their pocket books. Therefore, it’s the economy stupid – now, as it was in 1992. I wouldn’t challenge the notion that economic issues are and will be very important. But while the war in Iraq may have drifted off the radar screens recently, I am confident that it will return as a major issue in people’s minds as they choose the future President.
Actually, it’s not hard to make the case that the Iraq War itself is an economic issue. With its costs now approaching one trillion dollars – and the tab continuing to mount at roughly $3 billion dollars per week – one could certainly argue that the war has contributed to the economic problems this country is now facing. Still, Iraq as an issue will transcend the question of its dollar costs.
Ultimately, the question is simple: what do we do now? The remaining viable Republicans, Senator John McCain and Governor Mitt Romney, pledge to stay in Iraq until victory is achieved. Democratic Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have promised to begin withdrawing American combat forces responsibly, at the rate of about a brigade a month, which would take approximately a year to achieve.
But those are basically bumper sticker slogans that in no way convey the complexity of the decisions about the nation’s security that will need to be made by the next President – who can expect no help from the incumbent.
George W. Bush may withdraw the additional forces that went into Iraq with the so-called surge. He needs to do that to save an overstretched U.S. Army. But every indication is that, once that has been accomplished by July, that will be it – there will be no more withdrawals on Bush’s watch. That means that about 130,000 American troops will still be in Iraq by January 2009.
A year from now, the political and military situations there could be about as they are now, or, I would predict, once more in turmoil. That’s because all of the parties in Iraq, as well as regional powers such as Iran, are keenly aware of the political process now taking place in this country. And they can be expected to make new aggressive moves in ways calculated to strengthen their positions before the new American President takes office.
On the one hand, the Republican and Democratic parties appear to be offering the American voters a clear choice on Iraq. On the other hand, the candidates and the news media can be counted upon to complicate if not obscure those choices by adding the issues of race, gender, age and experience – with dashes of patriotism and jingoism.
That said, regardless of who finally emerges as each party’s Presidential nominee, I believe the debate over which candidate will make the country safer will again become a prevailing theme of an American Presidential election campaign.