(HOST) Today is the anniversary of the 1979 Iranian revolution. Since then the Islamic Republic of Iran has become a significant Middle Eastern power. But as commentator and former ABC News diplomatic correspondent Barrie Dunsmore tells us this morning, Iran’s theocratic regime is now facing greater internal threats than at any time in its 31 year history.
(DUNSMORE) In advance of today’s anniversary, Iran’s government organized its usual big rallies – but this year opposition leaders urged their supporters to peacefully demonstrate against the regime. At the end of today, it may be possible to determine which side gained an advantage – but the numbers of protestors will not tell the whole story.
Since hundreds of thousands of demonstrators took to the streets last June to protest the apparently rigged results of the presidential election, the regime has engaged in an increasingly repressive effort to stifle its opponents. In recent weeks at least a thousand people have been imprisoned under an order issued last June that gives police unlimited powers of arrest. Eleven political prisoners have been sentenced to be executed – so far, two have been hanged. Obviously this crackdown means that only the very fearless take to the streets. One way the meaning of today’s demonstrations may finally be measured will be the extent of protesters’ injuries and deaths and whether they fight back.
But whatever happens today, there is no doubt that in the past eight months Iran’s Islamic rulers have been facing a major shift in public opinion against them. What started with mainly younger people and the better educated has dramatically spread.
Major women’s groups have joined the opposition; so have many journalists, labor unions, university professors, and even some conservative clerics.
Others, who are not part of the opposition, have publicly condemned the regime’s recent behavior. This includes the Chief Justice Larijani, who recently told a meeting of jurists that he would no longer agree to executions of political prisoners. This is considered highly significant.
Analysts of Iran are not predicting an imminent collapse of the regime. However, they generally agree that this crisis is paralyzing the entire government, particularly in the area of foreign policy. At the same time some experts say the regime might hope to divert attention from its problems at home by being more confrontational with the rest of the world. That may account for Iran’s latest announcement that it plans to enrich its uranium at a higher level – which will bring it closer to weapons grade.
But remember, Iran’s right to have a nuclear program may be one of the few things the government and its opponents agree upon. So all of this seems to mean that for the foreseeable future Iran is unlikely to make any concessions to the outside world regarding its apparent effort to develop nuclear weapons. The international community’s reaction to this reality will inevitably be an attempt to impose harsher economic sanctions, although getting China to sign on remains a problem.
The Obama administration is now preparing sanctions that will specifically target the banks, companies and individual members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards. This is the hard-line institution that controls everything from Iran’s nuclear program to its police-state security apparatus. The goal will be to further alienate the Iranian people from their oppressors – a noble aim, but wickedly difficult to accomplish.