(HOST) Most Americans were sympathetic to the brave Egyptian protesters and continue to cheer the freedom and democracy demonstrations spreading throughout the Arab World. However, as commentator and former ABC News diplomatic correspondent Barrie Dunsmore tells us this morning, whatever changes come about will have consequences for us all.
(DUNSMORE) The new Arab revolt is just beginning. In Egypt it is too early to tell if the Army will ultimately cede power to a freely elected civilian regime. It could be months or longer before that picture becomes clearer. Uncertainty is even greater in other Arab states now in various stages of coping with this massive new wave of popular unrest. But if you filled your vehicle with gas in the past few days, or looked at the value of the stock market, you will have seen tangible evidence that the consequences of this latest Arab uprising can be far-reaching.
But what has happened in just a few weeks is evidence enough that America’s old ways of dealing with the Middle East – opting for stability over human rights – are over. I’ve heard analysts say that the Arab protests are evidence of the failure of that decades-old strategy. I might argue that any grand plan that works for decades wasn’t entirely a failure. But the drama recently played out in Cairo’s Tahrir Square was powerful evidence that a new American approach – fully recognizing the human rights of Arab citizens – was long past due.
The tricky problem is devising a new strategy that deals with the new political realities – but which also continues to protect American interests in the region. Broadly speaking, since the end of World War II those interests have been – one: ensuring the unimpeded flow of oil to the United States and its allies – and two: making sure Israel was secure.
As for oil, producing countries, whether they be run by dictators or democrats, need to sell their product on the world market. Supply problems because of internal conflicts such as those in Libya are most likely not long term.
Israel is a more complicated question. I don’t think some Islamic government is going to take over in Cairo and break the Egyptian-Israeli peace agreement. But the fact is that almost any democratically elected government in the Arab World – which is to say one that truly reflects the views of the people – is almost certainly going to be anti-American and anti-Israel. That’s because most of the Arab masses are pro-Palestinian, and they view Israel’s decades-long military occupation of Palestinian territory as a great injustice.
Given the current mood of the region, there is the real possibility that the Palestinians themselves could begin massive non-violent demonstrations on the West Bank, calling for an end to the Israel occupation. Such a standoff – watched in real time by the rest of the world – would present both Israel and the U.S. with a nowin situation. One possible way to head this off would be to restart serious negotiations in the near future for that elusive Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement – which at times has been achingly close. Whatever concessions necessary to close the deal would be far less onerous than the whole range of future problems likely if the status quo continues.