(HOST) Throughout the day everyone – including President Obama and the director of the CIA – expected Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to resign tonight. He did not. Commentator and veteran ABC diplomatic correspondent Barrie Dunsmore gives us the background.
(DUNSMORE) Today’s confusing events appear to flow directly from a meeting this morning of the Supreme Council of the Egyptian Armed Forces. This is a Council that historically has met only in war time – and it was a statement issued by this group expressing its concern for the interests, the security and the safety of the nation – that set off the reports that President Mubarak would resign later today.
In short, it seemed the military had apparently decided to show Mubarak the door, not only because the current crisis was a threat to the security of the nation – but because it was becoming a direct threat to the military’s own very complex political and economic interests.
Basically, the military has been in charge of Egypt since Colonel Gamal Abdul Nasser led young officers in the overthrow of King Farouk in 1952. In the years that followed, the Army has been one of the few respected institutions in the country. Since the 1970s, when then President Anwar Sadat kicked out the Russians, opened a strategic relationship with the United States, and made peace with Israel – top officers particularly have prospered enormously. There are no poor generals in Egypt, and there are lots of them.
As in China, the influence of the Egyptian military goes far beyond issues of war and peace. It owns or controls most companies in the defense industry. But it also has major investments in other manufacturing – for instance, most refrigerators in Egypt are made by companies owned by the army. The military owns luxury hotels and travel companies and thus a big piece of the tourist industry. These may all be perfectly legitimate businesses. But throughout the 17 days of the Egyptian revolution almost the number one complaint of the demonstrators has been about the corruption in the country – where most of the 80 million people are very poor but a small number – including those generals – are very rich.
The current turmoil in Egypt is obviously a threat to the business interests of the military. But do the Egyptian generals also see the prospects of Egypt becoming a democracy a threat to their own longstanding position of power and privilege within Egyptian society? I don’t know what their role would be in a democratic Egypt – nor do they.
A good model is the Turkish military, which tends to thrive and nowadays stays in the background. A bad model is Pakistan, where the Army forms a virtual parallel universe with the elected civilian government – and pretty much does what it wants.
All of this may seem to be rendered moot by Mubarak’s surprising speech this evening, in which, contrary to all expectations, he did not step down.
The demonstrators – or the military – may yet persuade him to do so. But as things stand this evening, the battle for Egypt’s future remains on-going and undecided.